COP 29 blogs by a Dutch Mennonite

Monday, 11 November 2024, the 29th edition of the annual climate negotiations of the United Nations, COP 29, begins. COP stands for Conference of the Parties, and those Parties are the participating countries: almost all countries in the world. This time, the delegations of those countries will meet in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. That is an oil country par excellence. Last year the climate conference, COP 28, was also held in an oil country: in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

How is that possible? After all, we know we have to stop using fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) as soon as possible!

Unfortunately, that is not so easy: the lobby from the fossil industry is enormous. Partly for that reason, rich countries are investing a lot in “auxiliary tools,” such as the capture and storage of the greenhouse gas CO2. They’ll try anything just to continue the use of fossil fuels.

An acquaintance of mine works as a scientist at Shell and is involved in the development of CO2 capture and storage. Just back from an international conference, he told me that little progress is being made, that the technologies are very expensive, and that they require a lot of energy.

So, they are not cost-effective or energy-efficient at all. It would make much more sense to switch to sustainable energy as soon as possible…

Unfortunately, many people apparently want to continue believing in dreams, and that is disturbing. Until they are roughly woken up from that dream, like the Californians whose houses are on fire. Or the Spanish in and around Valencia. The population there is very angry, because the warnings scientists had issued days in advance had not reached the people. The responsible politicians had not taken those warnings seriously, and only passed them on when it was already too late.

Does that remind you of something? Exactly. All those scientists who have been issuing one warning after another about the climate crisis for years, while (international) politics looks the other way. “Better remain good friends with the fossil industry’, because the financial interests are huge. In fact, in many countries the political scene is largely financed by that same fossil industry. For example, in America…

When will we wake up and stop letting ourselves be pushed back into any dream? It is time to join forces and push back! We, religious organizations, have been practicing just that for years. We rose our voices at climate COPs and will continue to do so.

This time the Multifaith Triple CoP Call for Action was issued: shared interest must come first, not the interests of individual countries. More will follow. I will keep you informed in the coming weeks.

The first day of COP 29 has more or less ended. That’s to say: talks always continue behind closed doors, even at night.

At the opening plenary the new COP president, Azerbaijani Mukhtar Babayev, gave a lengthy speech in which he laid out his expectations: more ambition, more action, more finance. As president, he could not be too outspoken, but the next speaker more than made up for that.

Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UNFCCC secretariat, bluntly said that lack of climate action will cause global instability and loss of life, and will bring the global economy to its knees. Real climate finance is needed, not as charity, but in the self-interest of all countries, including the largest and wealthiest.

The global financial system needs to be adapted to the reality of the climate crisis.

Afterwards Parties struggled over the adoption of the agenda. It took them the whole day and many talks behind closed doors to finally do so. But there was also an early success around the new UN global carbon market to be set up. Two consecutive COPs failed to deliver the rules, now some were adopted as a package.

More work remains to be done, but the first step is there.

Several NGOs held opening press conferences.

The leader of Climate Action Network (consisting of more than 1 800 NGOs) was adamant about climate finance, the main topic of this COP. She said the Global South demands the repayment of the centuries-long debt that the Global North has accumulated by its new form of colonialism: the exploitation of nature, natural resources and the atmosphere.

This repayment should amount to at least US$5 trillion per year.

The way she shifted around the narrative around debtwas refreshing. Although other NGOs – including Indigenous Peoples’ organisations – did not mention that same number, their overall stances were the same: people are dying and suffering, the Global North has the historic and moral obligation to pay. And not in loans, but in grants from public money.

There may be much talk about investment from the private sector, but who is going to control that? Moreover, in the Paris Agreement there is no mention of investments by the private sector.

At the same time USA climate envoy John Podesta explained that the delivery of climate finance in the form of public money is limited. A large portion of climate finance needs to come from the private sector. Now that Trump has been elected president, the outlook is even more difficult: it can be expected that Trump wants to withdraw the USA from the Paris Agreement again, as he did during his first presidential term. However, Podesta reassured his audience that the USA, especially several states, will continue their climate policies and many climate-friendly investments will not be repealed. Also he stated that China could become the new climate leader, pointing out that China is already contributing to climate finance in various ways.

The above clearly illustrates the enormous gap between the perceptions of the Global South and the Global North.

Will this COP deliver a bridge, or at least the building blocks for a bridge?

The ecumenical team had its first evening session. Thanks to modern digital technology these meetings are hybrid: in situ in Baku and online for those who monitor the events online.

Some ecumenical events have already taken place:

• In the run up to this COP the multifaith Talanoa Dialogue was held on 6 November 2024. See https://oikoumene.org/news/interfaith-dialogue-on-climate-urges-action-compassion-and-resilience-ahead-of-cop29
• This morning, 11 November 2024, an online ecumenical prayer took place “for those in positions of power to make decisions that will improve the lives of climate-vulnerable communities and protect our children’s future, and for all of us to act now for climate justice.”
• And the World Council of Churches issued an advocacy video. See https://oikoumene.org/news/wcc-advocates-for-justice-driven-climate-action-at-cop29 

To be continued.11 November 2024, Marijke Van Duin

The second day of the climate summit brought bad news: Dutch courts overturned a Friends of the Earth’s 2021 victory. The oil giant Shell won its appeal against an emission reduction obligation on the oil giant Shell. You can bet that this has been noticed in Baku.

The negotiations are underway. In addition, the two-day World Leaders Climate Action Summit has started, at the same time as the High Level Segment. A fancy name to indicate that heads of state and government are expected. All will give a speech.

Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev kicked it off and did so in a decidedly undiplomatic way. He criticized critics who have called Azerbaijan a petrostate, despite the country’s investments in sustainable energy. And wasn’t it the European Commission that came begging for more gas when the war in Ukraine started?

Despite quite a few cancellations by heads of state (widely reported in the media), Aliyev was able to announce that 72 000 registered participants from 196 countries and 80 heads of state/government are taking part in this COP.

The UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, may have been more polite but spoke harsh words. If no money is put on the table, a large part of the world’s population will pay the price. The G20 must lead, with much more ambitious climate plans that encompass the entire economy. There must be a reduction in the production and consumption of fossil fuels by 30% in 2030. Much more investment in sustainable energy is needed, also in poor(er) countries. And much more money for adaptation (to climate change) and loss and damage (as a result of climate change) is required.

The financing gap for adaptation alone will amount to US$359 billion per year in 2030 if nothing is done. That simply means that people, animals and ecosystems will die and development will be destroyed.

The current investments in sustainable energy go largely to the domestic market, with only 15% going to developing countries – China not included. So a course change is called for and an overhaul of the international financing system, starting with multilateral development banks.

While one speech after another was being made, the negotiations on the New Collective Quantified Goal continued.

The NCQG is the most important agenda item for this COP. That ‘goal’ refers to climate financing: how much, in what form, who pays and who receives? This has been a matter of debate for a few years.

The negotiating document that was drawn up in the run-up to this COP was swept off the table by the G77/China. The G77 is a large group of developing countries that work together and have now adopted a joint position on the NCQG. This must amount to at least US$1.3 trillion per year, to be paid by the rich countries, and available for both mitigation and adaptation and loss & damage. The rich countries, in turn, do not want to raise more than US$100 billion per year as long as other countries do not contribute as well. And they want the private sector to participate big time.

In short, the co-chairs of this negotiation track have a lot of homework to do. A new negotiation text is expected in the course of the week. But an outcome will probably not be reached until just before the end of this COP – if it ever comes at all.

Not only negotiators were considering climate financing and the energy transition. This so-called Just Transition is also a topic of discussion among a large coalition of Indigenous Peoples. They met in Geneva in October and issued a declaration that was presented in Baku today. The rights of Indigenous Peoples are ignored far too often, for example when their land is mined for raw materials that are needed for the energy transition. They state that any project that proceeds without obtaining “free, prior and informed consent “does not constitute “a just transition.”

There were more presentations.

The UNHCR, the UN refugee agency, has published a report on the link between armed conflict, climate change and forced displacement: No Escape: On the Frontlines of Climate Change, Conflict and Displacement. About 75% of the world’s population lives in areas that are vulnerable to climate change. There are currently approximately 117.3 million refugees worldwide, 70% of whom remain in their own region.

Not only the UNHCR High Commissioner had speaking time, but also a refugee from South Sudan. A resilient young woman who, separated from her family, had to choose between giving up hope or keeping hope. She had chosen the latter and founded an NGO: Root of Generations.

The World Health Organization, UNICEF and the medical journal The Lancet presented the report A Threat to Progress, Confronting the effects of climate change on child health and well-being.

The climate crisis is also a health crisis, especially for children. Health risks already start during pregnancy: heat stress leads to more premature births and stillbirths. Children need good food, but when crops fail due to climate change, malnutrition spreads, with all the consequences for their (neurological) development. In addition, deadly infectious diseases such as malaria spread faster and further.

Today our religious delegations made themselves heard again. There was a side event on climate finance, organized by the Interfaith Liaison Committee at the Faith Pavillion.

You can read about yesterday’s ecumenical prayer service here

Photos can be viewed here

To be continued.

Day three in Baku. An Argentine delegation had to leave the conference in a hurry, on the orders of their president, Javier Milei – a kind of mini-Trump who has called climate change a “socialist lie” and wants to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Who will follow?

Because, despite the encouraging words of USA climate envoy John Podesta recently, it is not inconceivable that more countries will do so soon, the USA first. That is why in the corridors there is talk about a greater role for China, but also for the EU, Canada, the UK and Japan.

The Climate Action Network devoted a meeting to this today and asked experts from these countries for their opinion.

The UK recently announced stricter climate policies and Canada is setting up a solid climate fund, it was announced yesterday.

In Japan, it is mainly local authorities that are involved in climate policy; the national government has so far kept a low profile.

And what about the EU? It likes to present itself as a climate leader, but is that justified?

Judging by the participation of various EU countries in the High Ambition Coalition (HAC), you would think so. This is a loose coalition of countries that want more climate ambition and are praising themselves for it. Today, another magnificent statement was presented.

But on closer inspection, it turns out to contain a lot of window dressing. Because in the negotiations themselves, the EU regularly puts on the brakes, certainly with regard to the NCQG (New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance), the target for climate finance.

Today, Brazil, host country for COP 30, released its new climate plan. It provides for an emission reduction of around 60% in 2035 compared to 2005. But there is a catch. Instead of reducing the use of fossil fuels, the country is relying on CO2 storage by its forests. The idea is that the Amazon rainforest can be better protected by selling carbon credits. Unfortunately, this can also lead to an expansion of the fossil industry…

Many NGOs warn of the same problem: a global carbon market sounds good, but the carbon credit system (where countries can sell emission credits that they do not use themselves to other countries) can also lead to an unwelcome delay in dismantling the fossil industry.

In fact, there is no dismantling at all, as evidenced by the Global Carbon Budget Report 2024 presented today. This fruit of collaboration between more than 190 scientists and 86 organizations from 19 countries shows that emissions from fossil fuels have never been higher, and the peak is not yet in sight.

That is not surprising, because all countries want to develop their economies. But since most countries do not have the money to switch to sustainable energy, they are dependent on fossil fuels.

It is not without reason that there were huge riots in Kenya a few months ago, when its government announced an increase in petrol prices. Those plans were then rapidly withdrawn for the sake of peace…

In short: a lot of climate money is needed to get all countries to participate in the energy transition. That is and remains the core point of the climate negotiations – 20 years ago, five years ago, and especially now.

In the evening session, members of the ecumenical team exchanged how they experience the mood in Baku. Various conversations revealed a lot of distrust and frustration. Two women from Uganda told how pledged climate money never arrived and expressed their dissatisfaction with the slow COP-process.

Also the current geopolitical tensions seem to play a greater role than at previous climate summits.

How could the ecumenical movement help build mutual trust?

Mentioned were, among other things, building coalitions with other groups/NGOs, addressing politicians and the media, and working on awareness-building in the churches themselves.

After all, many church members in the global North have no idea about the situation of their brothers and sisters in the South.

Pastoral presence was also mentioned, offering joint prayer and above all: bringing hope.

At a press conference today the multireligious cooperation at climate COPs was explained, and the COP 29 Interfaith Call to Action presented.

To be continued.

That was the outcry of a YOUNGO representative today. YOUNGO is the UN caucus in which young people from all over the world work together. In COP 29, many official negotiators are participating in this caucus because of their tender age. But is it a good sign that so many seasoned delegates have resigned? I fear that they have dropped out due to frustration at the lack of progress…

Young people live in fear of the future and demand action, for themselves and their possible children. If these will be born at all: various international studies have shown that almost half of young people worldwide are hesitant to start having children. Many suffer from uncertainty and depression.

Not only young people are vulnerable to the climate crisis, but also women, especially in developing countries.

That is why there has been a fight for years for agreements in the UN texts to support women and other vulnerable groups. There is even a special programme for this: The Enhanced Lima Work Programme on Gender. In theory, many countries consider this subject important. But as soon as it comes down to it, delegations back down. For example, the EU and the USA are currently blocking the inclusion of such text in the NCQG – the target for climate finance. While countries such as Russia and China have difficulty with phrases such as ‘gender-based violence’.

These and other (cultural) differences are seriously hampering the negotiations. In fact, I increasingly experience negotiators talking past each other, especially when it comes to climate finance. Also EU representatives acknowledged in a press conference today that the NCQG negotiators remain miles apart.

No wonder when you consider that the EU and other rich countries continue to insist on the involvement of the business community and are apparently unable to empathize with the point of view of poor countries.

In the words of a representative of the Women-Gender Caucus (yes, it exists too): “Colonial powers continue to determine what progress is! Despite the current polycrisis, rich countries spend $2.4 trillion a year on military resources. For comparison: the costs of COP 28 last year are equivalent to 2.4 hours of military expenditure and those of the Green Climate Fund (UN climate fund) to 2 days! The emissions from the war in Gaza are equivalent to those of 75 coal-fired power stations over a year. In short: there is enough money, but it is wasted on destruction instead of dedicated to climate policy!”

That leaves nothing to be desired in terms of clarity. But why is so much emphasis placed on public money?

Simply because it can be controlled, both in terms of the amount and the destination. This in contrast to private money, or investments by the business community. Governments can only push the business community in a certain direction through legislation. But the independence of many governments has been compromised in recent decades by becoming shareholders in many companies, and by allowing them to influence the very legislation in their field. Governments also often have little power because of international legislation that allows companies to sue governments if they want to take certain (climate) measures that affect the profitability of these companies…

Yes, that is the reality we live in. National governments don’t have as much power (anymore) as we think – and they have only themselves to blame for it. So what about that much-needed climate finance? One of the ideas going around is to try to attract more private money with public money, for example via development banks. If they, with the help of tax money (because that is public money), reduce the risks for companies to invest in climate-sensitive regions, that could be a win-win situation. That is the aim of the rich countries at the moment.

But there is a lot of criticism.

There is no guarantee that investments will be made where they are most needed. And why not use public money directly for climate projects? Why not support local businesses instead of coming up with complicated structures? Why not generate more public money by imposing extra taxes on the richest people on this planet? Likewise the most polluting companies, such as the fossil industry and international shipping and aviation?

You would think that would be an obvious solution. And the EU would like to do just that, at least on paper. But when push comes to shove, the ‘leakage’ argument is used: “If we impose certain taxes here, the business community will disappear to elsewhere.”

This is exactly how we, concerned citizens, have been strung along for many years. A breakthrough has to come from multilateral conferences such as this COP. Meaningful international tax measures need to be taken jointly, and the international financial system needs to be overhauled to make it people- and planet-proof.

Back to Baku itself, where talks resumed mostly behind closed doors. We observers are allowed in most negotiation rooms, but sometimes delegates need privacy and hold informal consultations. Fortunately, today some creative things happened. Such as a stunt, developed by a special working group within the ecumenical team. That stunt attracted a lot of attention and resulted in three interviews.

In the meantime, quite a few side events have been held in Baku, and more will follow. An overview tomorrow.

To be continued.