COP 28 blogs by a Dutch Mennonite – Mennonite World Conference

Stories in this page:

Endgame (13 December 2023)
Scandalous (11 December 2023)
Human rights (10 December 2023)
The Netherlands in the spotlight (9 December 2023)
Adaptation (6 December 2023)
Time pressure (5 December 2023)
Money, money, money (4 December 2023)
Balancing act (3 December 2023)
High level segment: kings, financiers and residents (1 December 2023)
The beginning (30 November 2023)
Climate summit in Dubai (29 November 2023)

Climate summit in Dubai

blog #1 – 29 November 2023

Tomorrow, November 30, the annual United Nations (UN) climate summit starts in Dubai. It’s number 28, that is why the meeting is called COP 28.

COP stands for Conference of the Parties. Those Parties are the participating countries in the climate convention of the UN, almost two hundred of them. In other words: almost all countries in the world.

These climate negotiations (because that’s what they are) started in the 1990s. The World Council of Churches (WCC), which has a good working relationship with the UN, has been involved in these summits from the beginning. This involvement has now grown and has become multi-religious. Yes: the other major religions in the world also understand the importance of the climate summits and are making themselves heard.

The Vatican has a special role. In 2015, just before the big climate summit in Paris, the Pope released an important encyclical (Laudato si’) that had an impact on the negotiations. That summit concluded with the Paris Climate Agreement, which has become the new guiding principle.

Sharing as a new concept

Many citizens all over the world are concerned about climate change. That is very understandable, because far too few measures have been taken so far. Realistically it’s very difficult to reach good agreements with all those countries.

A rich country (like the Netherlands) must make efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But it also has a historical responsibility: CO2, the most common greenhouse gas, remains in the atmosphere for centuries. That is why poor countries are calling on rich countries to make more money and clean technology available. Otherwise, they will have to use fossil fuels for their economic development for a long time to come. And that means even more greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, due to their geographical location, these countries are most affected by the consequences of climate change. We see this almost every day on the news.

This, in a nutshell, is the complex problem facing the world.

The major economies follow a business model based on making profits. They don’t work with the concept of sharing. However, this will be necessary to roll out the clean technology the world needs quickly enough. If this does not happen, the climate will warm too much and the consequences will be incalculable.

Learning through collaboration

The reader will realize by now that we are essentially dealing with a profound moral and ethical challenge – one of the reasons the major religions in the world are involved. After all, the climate challenge is about preserving creation, including people, animals, plants and ecosystems.

Humanity will have to radically change course.

That is why, in recent years, other cultures – especially those of Indigenous Peoples – have been looked at with new eyes, because they can teach us a lot in many respects. The WCC works closely with their organizations and amplifies their voices.

Since the year 2000, I have been a member of the WCC team that monitors the climate summits. In that capacity I will be following COP 28 closely and will blog about it.

More to come.

Marijke van Duin
Member of the Mennonite Church in the Netherlands, a MWC member congregation.
Since 2000, member of the Working Group on Climate Change of the World Council of Churches. This team is accredited as observers of the yearly UN climate negotiations.
These blogs were originally published in Dutch on the website of the Netherlands Council of Churches.

The beginning

blog #2 – 30 November 2023

It’s November 30, COP 28 has started. What are the most important points?

Global Stocktake (GST)

This year, for the first time, national climate efforts of recent years can be assessed and evaluated.

All countries have submitted climate plans under the Paris Climate Agreement and must implement them. Whether that actually happened, and whether those plans are ambitious enough, will be the focus in the coming weeks.

But various reports have already shown that this is not the case. In fact, the ambition must be increased 5 times (!) to achieve the most important goal of a maximum of 1.5 C warming. According to the latest data, global warming is currently already 1.4 C.

Loss & Damage

Loss and damage due to climate change.

Last year, after 30 years of lobbying, it was finally decided to set up a fund to compensate for this damage. Many countries are already experiencing this, which often leads to a decline in their gross domestic product.

Today, the fund has been formally established after a year of preparation. The fund is temporarily placed with the World Bank, which not all countries like. The need for (administrative) transparency and fair accessibility without geopolitical control was immediately pointed out.

There are of course many more important points. These will be discussed in subsequent blogs.

It is clear that this will be a very difficult COP.

The president of COP 28, Sultan Al Jaber, is also CEO of the state oil company of the United Arab Emirates. In his opening speech today, he stated that there is an important role for the fossil industry in tackling climate change.

And that is a sore point for many countries and organizations, especially the environmental movement.

How can you present the cause of a problem as the solution?

Well, it turns out that there are all kinds of ways to do this, especially technological innovations such as capturing and storing CO2 underground (CCS). But not only is this technology still under development and (therefore) very expensive, it is also used as an argument to continue developing new fossil sources.

Is that really the solution?

This contradiction will dominate COP 28.

The religious organizations, or Faith-Based Organizations (FBOs), were immediately busy today. Various religious organizations have been working together during the COPs for about eight years. Not only Christian, but also Jewish, Islamic, Buddhist, Hindu and others. This afternoon there was an open dialogue about various important agenda items, which could also be followed digitally. The most important results will be submitted as recommendations to the Presidency of COP 28.

The dialogue was followed by an interfaith celebration.

The role of religion in climate discussion

New at this COP is the Faith Pavilion – a meeting place especially for religious organizations. Tomorrow various activities will be organized there by young people. The World Council of Churches, among others, is involved.

In addition, there will be a meeting tomorrow, co-organized by the United Nations itself, on the role of religion in the climate discussion and in climate action. That role is gradually being seen and appreciated.

And the day after tomorrow, 2 December, the ecumenical service will be held that has now become a tradition at the COPs.

Marijke van Duin
Member of the Mennonite Church in the Netherlands, a MWC member congregation.
Since 2000 member of the Working Group on Climate Change of the World Council of Churches. This team is accredited as observers of the yearly UN climate negotiations.
These blogs were originally published in Dutch on the website of the Netherlands Council of Churches.

Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, COP28 President, joined climate leaders in launching the Global Cooling Pledge to collectively raise ambition and reduce cooling-related emissions. Photo: COP28UAE

High level segment: kings, financiers and residents

blog #3 – 1 December 2023

The second day started with the so-called High-Level Segment. Today and tomorrow, many heads of state will give a speech in Dubai to underline how important this summit is. These will be given in two plenary rooms simultaneously, by one president after another, kings and heads of government – a tradition at climate conferences.

During the first few years I followed those speeches closely. I now know that they more or less amount to the same thing: the situation is urgent and we must act quickly. Some heads of state boast of what has already been done by their country, others – usually from less wealthy countries – call on their counterparts from richer countries for global solidarity.

While the speeches are being presented, informal meetings of civil servants preparing for the actual negotiations are held in other rooms. It is striking that the vast majority of them are in their 30s, some even in their 20s.

The discussions include the Global Stocktake (GST) and climate finance. That last point is perhaps the most important of the entire climate process. Because without money there can be no sustainability transition and no global solidarity.

Although around 400 million dollars was already pledged yesterday for the new Loss & Damage Fund, it does not mean much. The question is whether that money is ‚Äònew and additional’, i.e., comes on top of existing money flows, especially those for development cooperation and for adaptation projects. If that is not the case, the commitments could have negative consequences.

It is also important that the money is not spent in the form of loans, because that will further increase the already large debt burden of poor countries.

This is one of the many points that specialized observers of NGOs – including those of religious (development) organizations – pay close attention to. In this way they support the poor(er) countries that desperately need these flows of money.

That is why finding a definition for climate finance that is accepted by everyone is a very tricky issue. Civil servants and their government bosses have been considering this for years, including now in Dubai. Ultimately, these negotiations should result in a ‚Äònew collective and quantified goal’ for climate financing: NCQG (New Collective Quantified Goal). Many tough nuts will undoubtedly be cracked during this process…

What are other organizations doing in the meantime?

Climate Action Network International (CAN-I) holds a press conference every day to explain the status of the summit. This network is formed by approximately 2 000 organizations (!) from 150 countries. CAN-I has been a fixture at climate summits for years.

We, observers of religious organizations, also benefit from their expertise.

Today it became clear that the most important point for CAN-I is the phasing out of fossil fuels. One of the spokespersons is the founder of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative – an initiative to ban fossil fuels for good. Many religious organizations, including Mennonite World Conference, support this initiative.

A meeting about this will be held tomorrow at the Faith Pavilion, together with Greenfaith, an international multi-faith organization focused on climate justice.

Litmus test

Not only NGOs, but also authoritative organizations such as the IEA (International Energy Agency) and the IPCC (the international team of hundreds of climate scientists who work for the UN) argue that we must phase out fossil fuels as quickly as possible.

Ditto former UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights, David Boyd. He said that COP 28 will be a litmus test for the entire UN climate negotiation process. In his opinion, if it is not possible to clearly agree that fossil fuels must be phased out as quickly as possible, this could mean the end of the entire process.

Let’s hope this will not be the case.

Other organizations are also hard at work. Including youth organizations and the Indigenous Peoples’ Platform (IPP).

This afternoon the Youth Climate Report was presented. This is an interactive documentary project: a digital database with videos about climate research by young people worldwide, from 2008 to the present.

The IPP has only been around for a few years and was created with the support of the World Council of Churches. Many Indigenous Peoples around the world feel disconnected from national borders and poorly represented by their national governments. Their voices were therefore not heard for years. Thanks to the platform, there are now various opportunities for them to participate in the climate process.

It is clear that they not only want to be seen as victims of climate change, which they certainly are, but also as providers of solutions. After all, they have centuries, even millennia, of experience with living with nature – not against nature.

Something to learn from.

Balancing act

blog #4 – 3 December 2023

Today is Health Day in Dubai. This means that the focus is on the relationship between climate change and human health.

Many people have died purely from heat stress in recent years, including in Europe. In addition, floods increase the risk of diseases such as cholera and malaria. Malaria is also advancing north, just like dengue: the mosquitoes that spread these diseases move north because of the higher temperatures.

And consider the smoke released during forest fires: it is very bad for your health.

Medical journals are increasingly paying attention to the negative effect of climate change on human health.

Another important meeting today was the ministerial round table discussion on ‚ÄúJust Transition.‚Äù This means achieving the fairest possible energy transition for the entire world.

This is perhaps the most important topic, certainly for the longer term.

The rich countries do have money for sustainable energy, but the poor(er) ones often do not. They are largely dependent on fossil fuels for their economic development. Something the fossil industry knows but too well. Their assessment of the future shows that they expect a decrease in the use of fossil fuels in rich countries, but an increase in poor ones. If this trend is not reversed, it will become impossible to adequately combat climate change. So there is every reason to focus on sustainable energy worldwide.

The strongest shoulders

Fortunately, there is broad agreement about the need to double energy efficiency worldwide in the coming years (up to and including 2030) and to triple investments in sustainable energy. But this will have to be accompanied by a rapid decrease in the use of fossil energy to have a positive effect on the climate.

However, strict realism is required: after all, we know what happens if, for example, the price of petrol goes up – protests and unrest everywhere. Just think of the yellow vests in France a few years ago, and the many protests in Latin American countries. People complain when they have to pay more at the pump.

This clearly shows that poor(er) people and countries need help to make the sustainability transition. This socio-economic aspect will become increasingly important in the coming years, also in rich countries. The slogan ‚Äòthe strongest shoulders must bear the heaviest burdens’ will have to be lived up to.

It is as if a ‚Äòthird way’ must be followed: not a foreign concept to Christians.

On the one hand, climate change forces us to switch to sustainable energy, on the other hand there is the need to keep economies running and/or further develop them. Hence the lobby to make fossil fuels cleaner and not to ban them.

To ensure that the energy transition takes place in a controlled manner, without economies being disrupted and societies ending up in chaos, but also without warming the climate further, a true balancing act is required.

This process is probably the greatest challenge humanity has ever faced. And it therefore needs input from all parties: not only governments, but also the business community, citizen movements, trade unions, NGOs and science. Everyone can and should be able to discuss this. The ministers agreed on this today.

Due to the comprehensive nature of the Just Transition, there will be a Work Program (JTWG). It was advocated that this should be included in all work streams of the climate negotiations: mitigation (the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions), adaptation (to climate change), climate finance, technology and more. The Work Program will also have to find its way into national climate plans and long-term strategies.

Loss through militarization

Yesterday, 2 December 2023, the Pope was scheduled to give a speech in Dubai. But he had to be absent due to illness. Fortunately, his spokesperson was able to present his text during the last part of the High-Level Segment.

And what a text!

The Pope called for national interests to finally be subordinated to the overarching interest: fighting climate change and choosing life.

It is time for a new vision, he said, new confidence in the multilateral process and attention to the victims. Moreover, care for creation is closely intertwined with the pursuit of peace – how much money and energy is lost in all kinds of wars that destroy our common home!

The full text can be found at: www.vatican.va/content/francesco/en/speeches/2023/december/documents/20231202-dubai-cop28.html

CAN-I also referred to the link between climate change and militarism. Their ECO newsletter today read the following:

Militarization is responsible for 5.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions but is not being addressed. On top of that come the emissions as a result of actual conflicts: in the first year, the emissions from the war in Ukraine were equal to those of a rich country like Belgium. In 2022, global military spending rose to a record high of $2.24 trillion. G20 military spending represents 87% of that. These same countries spend 30 times more on their military than on climate finance.
(translation and summary by Marijke van Duin)

A topic that resonates with us peace churches‚Ä¶

Dr. Sultan Al Jaber and World Bank President Ajay Banga connected during Finance Day at COP28, to discuss how to accelerate climate finance commitments from billions to trillions. Photo: COP28UAE

Money, money, money

blog #5 – 4 December 2023

Today is Finance Day in Dubai.

Actually, finance is always in the centre during the climate negotiations, but today it is being talked about even more than usual. There are various streams of negotiations underway: about long-term climate financing, about the new target to be determined that I mentioned a few days ago (NCQG), about financing for adaptation through the Adaptation Fund (AF), about the Green Climate Fund (Green Climate Fund, GCF) for which the promised annual $100 billion by 2020 has still not been achieved. And more.

The discussions always come down to the same thing. Many poor(er) countries are in a downward spiral. Their economies are under pressure due to large debt burdens and increasing problems caused by climate change (storms, floods, droughts, crop failures, migration). It is not without reason that they have been calling for better support from the rich countries for years. Not only because those countries are richer, but also because they are responsible for the historic emissions of greenhouse gases, the consequences of which we experience today.

Billions

You would say that the installation of the Climate Damage Fund should alleviate this need. But the reality is that that is just a drop in the ocean.

The real need is not in billions of dollars, but in the trillions as many studies have shown. Because money is needed not only for loss and damage, but also for adaptation plans (adaptation to climate change) and for mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions).

The rich countries understand that they have to pay, but try to avoid this as much as possible, by

not taking responsibility for historical emissions;
using existing funds and labelling them as climate money (e.g., money for development cooperation);
saying that everyone should contribute (e.g., China);
having loss and damage handled by insurance companies;
involving the private sector.

Shouldn’t China contribute then? It is the second largest polluter in the world, after the United States.

And yes, perhaps it is strange that China is still classified as a developing country at the UN. But then it is often forgotten that emissions per capita are much lower than those in the US or the EU.

Moreover, China’s emissions are recent, not from centuries ago. So some nuance is in order.

Meanwhile, Western countries and China continue to have a stranglehold on each other in this regard.

And aren’t insurance companies useful? Well, for people who can pay the premium, yes.

But most people in the poorest countries cannot. So for them, the most needy, it is not a solution.

In addition, there is the risk that companies no longer want to invest in countries with a high climate risk. Which would be the beginning of the end. These countries actually need support for much-needed adaptation to climate change. But contributions to the Adaptation Fund have declined in recent years…

Shouldn’t the private sector participate?

Yes, of course, but that requires one or two things. For example, a different tax system; levies on CO2; levies on international financial transactions; and so on. It also includes reforming international financial institutions such as the World Bank and multilateral banks. Discussions about this have only recently started.

At recent COPs, there is a push for heavily taxing the billion-dollar profits of the fossil industry and using that money for climate finance. Will that happen? Let’s hope so.

Efforts without results

Back to yesterday.

A row broke out when it was announced that COP28 president Al Jaber had said that science had not shown that the target of a maximum 1.5¬∞C warming could not be achieved while maintaining the fossil industry. He promptly received a letter from two top climate scientists who debunked this. Didn’t Al Jaber know that CCS (carbon capture and storage) can only eliminate a very small part of the emissions? Even people in the oil and gas industry themselves know that. (I can confirm the latter. An acquaintance I have works on CCS at Shell, and he says that a maximum of 5% CO2 emissions can be eliminated.)

The cold figures are as follows:

The fossil industry is responsible for 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Approximately 85% of this is caused by the combustion of the end products by industries and consumers (‚Äúscope 3‚Äù).

So even if the sector tries to make extraction, processing and production climate-neutral, it still makes little sense. In other words, the signing yesterday of the Oil and Gas Charter – an initiative of Al Jaber – by 50 oil and gas companies, does not have much significance.

By way of comparison, here is a statement by the head of the climate and health department at the World Health Organization: ‚ÄúTalking about climate change without talking about fossil fuels is like talking about lung cancer without mentioning tobacco.‚Äù

Unfortunately, fossil fuels are not mentioned in the COP 28 Health Declaration that was signed yesterday by 120 countries.

At the Youth Climate Champion Pavilion, Indigenous young people from the 7 socio-cultural regions engaged in insightful discussions to promote their essential involvement into the UNFCCC process, alongside leaders of each working group, indigenous organizations, communities and Youth Climate Champion Shamma Al Mazrui. Photo: COP28UAE

Time pressure

blog #6 – 5 December 2023

Today, almost all meetings start late or are postponed. Not so strange, since this is the largest COP ever, with more than 100 000 registered participants.

The delegations are getting bigger. That of the fossil sector is the third largest, with almost 2 500 people. Only the delegations of host country UAE and of Brazil (which will host the COP in 2025) are larger.

This makes the negotiations increasingly unworkable. And more importantly: not all countries can delegate so many people. Poor(er) countries in particular have to make do with sometimes only a handful of delegates. Due to the large number of parallel meeting streams, it is impossible for them to follow everything, so these countries are immediately behind.

Now or never

Time is running out, because the ministers will soon be coming to Dubai. The negotiating texts must be well prepared by then. It doesn’t look good in that regard.

The new EU Commissioner for Climate, Wopke Hoekstra, will also make his appearance. He will try to push for the most important EU position: the phasing out of fossil fuels.

At the moment the split is approximately 50-50: half of the participating countries want that too while the other half does not. If it is not possible to get the phasing out in black and white, to many, the summit will have failed according.

It is now or never.

The reality of the world is grim. Five countries in the world (namely the United States, Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom and Norway) have new oil and gas production projects in the pipeline until 2050; approximately 51% of the total number of planned projects. If these countries – which are also historic emitters – were to withdraw those plans, it would save an enormous amount of CO2 emissions.

Fortunately, other countries show real leadership by joining the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, or by trying to get a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty off the ground. That kind of leadership is desperately needed.

In the Netherlands, Greenpeace has done important work on the fossil sector.